J. 安德鲁Concannon
CFA, CFP®

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经济复苏开始

2020年7月

We’ll start with good news: the recession that began in February has already ended. That is not to say that the economy is back to where it was in January. 事实远非如此. But, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (the official arbiter for defining U.S. recession periods), a recession is a period of diminishing rather than diminished activity. 随着各州开始放松封锁限制, 经济活动不再减少, 而是扩大. For example, see May’s record monthly increase in retail sales as shown in the chart below. 因此, the steepest recession since the Great Depression appears to have ended after just three months, although it will be much longer before the economy is fully mended.

 

 

Understanding how the recent recession could end so soon requires distinguishing its cause from factors that preceded typical recessions during the past century. 这些衰退, 平均持续11个月, were usually caused by some combination of an overheated economy, 高债务水平, 利率上升.1相比之下, this recession was caused by a natural disaster in the form of a virus. Or more precisely, it was caused by governments locking down 企业 to slow the virus’s spread. Those lockdowns caused immediate disruptions and distortions to economic activity—not unlike the effects caused by natural disasters 如飓风 and earthquakes. But this pandemic’s vast reach and duration made it far worse economically than most natural disasters. 而不是只影响一个城市或一个州, 它几乎影响了整个世界, 而且还在继续这样做. 自然灾害, 如飓风, cause a sudden decline in economic activity followed by a sharp rebound as destroyed items are replaced. 大流行的, 因为这个正在被管理, started with a sudden decline followed by a sharp government stimulus-supported rebound as 企业 have been allowed to reopen. The economy’s ability to bounce back depends on several factors including the containment of the virus, 政府对个人的支持, 企业, 和金融市场, 以及封锁限制的持续时间. Of these, the duration of the lockdown restrictions is the most important for the economy. No government support program can substitute for an open, fully functioning economy. In March, one of the most concerning unknowns was how long the lockdowns would last. As it turned out, the duration was at the short end of the expected range. 因此, 的经济损失, 尽管广泛, was less than it would have been had the lockdowns been extended for a much longer period.

 

债券和现金的低收益

Bond markets experienced severe imbalances in March causing U.S. Treasury bond yields to plunge to record lows and corporate and municipal bond yields to rise sharply. 为了稳定市场, the Federal Reserve swiftly announced massive bond-purchase programs and other forms of support. 甚至在实施这些计划之前, 公司和市政债券的收益率迅速下降. The Federal Reserve also pushed short-term interest rates back near zero as it had done during the 2008–2009 financial crisis. 更低的债券收益率意味着未来更低的回报. Although short-to-intermediate-term investment-grade bonds still offer important qualities of liquidity and limited volatility, current yield levels will not meet most investors’ return goals. And the Federal Reserve’s announced plan to hold short-term interest rates near zero through 2022 means yields will likely remain low for an extended period. 低债券收益率使得寻找价值成为一种相对的游戏. We currently view below-investment-grade corporate bonds to be attractive due to historically high yields relative to U.S. 美国国债. We also see value in municipal and agency bonds for the same reason, 尽管绝对收益率不那么令人信服.

 

不稳定的股票市场

自2月份见顶以来,美国股市的表现一直很好.S. stock market has experienced both the fastest decline from an all-time high (-33.在过去的23个交易日中上涨了9%),也是50天以来涨幅最大的一次(上涨了39.6%).2The stock market has historically served as a leading indicator of economic activity, 这一次似乎也不例外. 但它从未以如此快的速度或如此波动. Nor have there been many instances when the returns between different stock groups have varied so widely, 与许多大, more stable companies having fared well while small and cyclical company stocks took the brunt of the decline. Some investors have expressed concern that stock prices have rebounded too fast and too far for this stage of the economic recovery. 我们同意股票市场, 从整体上看, appears richly priced on traditional measures such as price relative to earnings. 然而, much of the market’s high valuation premium is concentrated across the largest companies that make up an oversized portion of widely followed market indices. 相比之下, the stocks of many smaller and cyclical companies are not expensive, 因此给365亚洲唯一官网下载者留下了机会. Stock prices have historically moved in the direction of future earnings with interest rates influencing valuation levels. Earnings should begin to improve with the economy’s reopening, 这是股市反弹的原因吗. 但与以往一样,长期收益增长是不太可知的. 什么是已知的, 然而, is the Federal Reserve’s plan to hold short-term interest rates near zero through 2022. 无法通过现金等价物和债券实现收益目标, investors will seek higher returns in risk assets including stocks. 因此, we may be in for a period of elevated stock valuations regardless of earnings growth.

1The median recession period during the Fed era (since 1913) has been 11 months. 资料来源:彭博社Merk Investments.
2标准只提供价格回报 & 可怜的500®指数. Fastest decline measured from the closing price on February 19, 2020年3月23日以收盘价收盘, 2020. The largest 50-day increase measured from the closing price on March 23, 2020年6月3日以收盘价收盘, 2020