### J. 安德鲁Concannon

CFA, CFP®

首席365亚洲唯一官网下载官

CFA, CFP®

首席365亚洲唯一官网下载官

2018年4月

我每年要花多少钱才不会耗尽我的365亚洲唯一官网下载组合? 这是我们经常从客户那里听到的问题. 虽然问题很简单，但计算答案却不是.

One conservative answer is to spend only the income your investment portfolio generates. 不幸的是, making this strategy work in today’s low-yield environment requires a very large portfolio relative to your annual spending. In fact, your portfolio needs to be over 43 times the size of your annual spending. 这个数字是基于目前的2.3% average yield for a portfolio balanced between stocks and high- quality 债券.^{1 }Such a large multiple of annual spending is well beyond the size of most portfolios.

对于大多数个人和365亚洲官网下载来说, meeting annual spending needs requires withdrawing some combination of their portfolio’s income, 升值, 和校长. Many people approach this by withdrawing a predetermined percentage of their portfolio’s value. 这听起来是个简单的解决方案，对吧? 现在你需要做的就是确定一个可持续的提款率. 这就是事情变得复杂的地方.

Three factors determine whether your portfolio will be able to sustain your chosen withdrawal rate: inflation, 365亚洲唯一官网下载回报水平, 以及365亚洲唯一官网下载回报的可变性. A closer look at these factors will highlight the importance of having both a realistic withdrawal rate and a properly managed investment portfolio to avoid prematurely depleting your assets.

通货膨胀要求你的取款随着时间的推移而增长，以满足你的开支. 例如，如果你在第一年取出50000美元，通胀是2.5% will raise your year-two withdrawal to $51,250, your year-three withdrawal to $52,531, and so on. If your portfolio’s investments do not provide an adequate return to cover both the current year’s withdrawal and inflation, 它的价值将以越来越快的速度缩水.

Higher investment returns are generally better than lower returns when trying to sustain your portfolio. But higher returns typically come paired with higher return variability— often referred to as volatility. 当你从365亚洲唯一官网下载组合中取出钱的时候, 我将在下面讨论高回报变异性可能是消极的. 另一方面, a portfolio invested too conservatively will have little chance of providing the returns needed to meet your needs. 因此, you should strive to structure your portfolio to provide an adequate return relative to your withdrawal rate, 同时避免过度的回报可变性.

When taking withdrawals from a portfolio, return variability can have a large effect on its value. For example, imagine two portfolios, A and B, each with starting values of $100,000. 你每年从每个365亚洲唯一官网下载组合中提取5000美元，持续3年. Both portfolios have the same three-year time-weighted average annual return of 5.2%，但年回报率的顺序不同. Portfolio A produces returns of +15% in year 1, +15% in year 2, and -12% in year 3. For Portfolio B, we reverse the order of the annual returns to -12%, +15%, and +15%. 三年之后, 365亚洲唯一官网下载组合A的价值是101美元,920, 而组合B的价值只有99美元,018. 退货的可变性和取款的结合导致了这种差异.

运用这三个因素的过程——通货膨胀, 回报水平, and return variability- to projecting the sustainability of a given withdrawal rate is complex. 因为这个原因, we turn to a computer software tool known as Monte Carlo analysis. The software runs thousands of simulations based upon historic returns and correlations for stocks, 债券, 而其他365亚洲唯一官网下载同时也计入了入账的提现率. The software then calculates the probability of whether the portfolio will grow, 缩小, 或者完全耗尽.

Table 1 shows the odds of depleting a $1 million portfolio within 25 years based upon various initial withdrawal rates and annual rates of return. Success means that at the end of 25 years the portfolio is worth at least one dollar. 如你所见, 3%到4%的提款率通常会比较好, while withdrawal rates of 7% or more greatly increase the odds of depleting the portfolio. 该表进一步显示了低回报, 很可能是因为365亚洲唯一官网下载过于保守, 也大大增加了消耗的几率.

Note too that the odds of depleting a portfolio with a 7% return and a 7% withdraw rate are much higher than with a 5% return and 5% withdraw rate. 其原因是返回可变性. As you increase the allocation to riskier assets in order to earn a higher return, 您还增加了回报可变性的数量.

You might be thinking that cutting your portfolio down to one dollar remaining is a little too close for comfort. 因为这个原因, we also calculated the odds that a portfolio would not fall below one-half of its initial value. 这些概率如表2所示. It should come as no surprise that this reduces the combinations of withdrawal rates and returns that are successful.

然而，在预测未来时，从来没有保证, having a plan based on a realistic withdrawal rate and a properly managed portfolio can make a big difference to your financial well-being. If you would like a customized projection based on upon your spending needs and portfolio, 请365亚洲唯一官网下载您的私人格尔泽顾问.

_{1基于2018年3月29日50/50混合S&P 500 Index’s trailing 12-months dividend yield and the Bloomberg Barclays Intermediate Government/Credit Index’s yield to worst.}

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_{2 All calculations are from Zephyr Allocation Advisor’s Monte Carlo program based upon historical return and volatility data for U.S. 股票，外国股票，美国股市.S. 债券, and liquid alternative assets using the following benchmarks and beginning dates: S&P 500® Index, Q4 1989; S&P 400® Mid Cap Index, Q3 1991; S&p600®小型股指数, Q1 1995; MSCI EAFE Index, Q1 1970; USBIG Government/Credit 1-5 Year Index, Q1 1980; Goelzer Non-Traditional Assets Model Portfolio Q1 2009; and custom 3-month T-bill projections of 2.8%. 所有基准测试的结束日期都是12/31/17. The Zephyr software calculates the asset allocations required to meet the stated annual rates of return and runs simulations based upon those asset allocations.}

**The information provided in this material should not be considered as a recommendation to buy, 出售或持有任何特定的证券. This report includes candid statements and observations regarding investment strategies, 个别证券, and economic and market conditions; however, 没有人能保证这些语句, 观点或预测将被证明是正确的. 实际的结果可能与我们预期的有很大的不同. The views and strategies described in the piece may not be suitable to all readers and are subject to change without notice. 你不应该过分依赖前瞻性的陈述, 截至本报告日期有哪些是最新的. The information is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, 法律, 以及税务建议或365亚洲唯一官网下载建议. 365亚洲唯一官网下载股票是有风险的，包括损失本金. 过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果.**