J. 安德鲁Concannon




365亚洲唯一官网下载涉及风险. One type of risk we all try to avoid is the permanent loss of money. But a more common risk faced by investors is temporary loss caused by fluctuating asset prices—a risk we’ve experienced to extremes since the pandemic began. 这种风险通常被称为波动率.


Investors are often advised not to be concerned with volatility. After all, stock and bond prices fluctuate, and market declines will be recovered over time. Volatility is simply the cost that comes with achieving higher returns. 但如果我们不应该担心波动性, 为什么365亚洲唯一官网下载顾问, 包括末期, view volatility as an important consideration when building portfolios? It’s because volatility matters when investors take portfolio withdrawals.



Why would advisors tell investors not to worry about volatility? 为了解释这个, 我将从两个10美元的简单例子开始,000 portfolios that grow by a 5% average annual rate over 10 years. The difference between the two is that one grows steadily by 5% each year while the other experiences much higher volatility, 年回报率从-21%到+30%不等. 作为一个结果, the two portfolios grow to the same value by the end of the 10-year period, 如图1所示. This, of course, is the argument for why investors should not be concerned with volatility. 不管要走哪条路, 如果平均回报相同, 最终的结果是一样的.


无论事实如何, volatility matters a great deal if the investor with the volatile portfolio needs to withdraw their investment early. 在这个例子中, they would fare worse from years 3 through 8 versus if they held the steady portfolio.




Let’s take it a step further and look at how regularly scheduled withdrawals can affect the outcomes of volatile versus steady portfolios. Here we use the same two portfolios from our last example but withdraw $400 at the end of each year. 如图2所示, 尽管取款量相等, the volatile portfolio ends the period with a lower value than the steady portfolio. This is caused by withdrawals being taken during periods when the volatile portfolio’s value is lower than that of the steady portfolio, leaving less money invested to recover from the temporary market declines. The larger the withdrawals or the greater the declines at the time of withdrawals, the bigger the negative effect on the volatile portfolio’s ending value.




This leads me to another important risk linked to volatility known as sequence risk. 这种风险对退休人员尤其重要, 捐赠基金, 基金会, and others who rely on portfolio withdrawals to fund living expenses or services. Sequence risk is the risk that portfolio declines come early during a withdrawal period, thereby leaving less portfolio value available to recover during the next positive return period.


展示一个序列风险的例子, 我们还是从2美元开始,000 portfolios that achieve 5% average annual returns and have $400 withdrawals taken at the end of each year. 在这个例子中, 这两种365亚洲唯一官网下载组合的波动性水平相同, but one experiences negative investment returns during the first three years while the second experiences positive returns during those years.1如图3所示, the portfolio that began with a string of negative returns is significantly smaller at the end of the 10-year period.




幸运的是, investors can reduce volatility risk while still striving to achieve competitive long-term returns. The primary method is to combine multiple asset types in a manner that reduces the amount of predicted volatility for a target level of return. 这通常被称为资产配置. Through asset allocation we manage predicted volatility levels by combining lower- volatility assets with higher-volatility assets. For example, low-volatility short-maturity bonds are combined with higher-volatility common stocks. We also pair assets that exhibit negative or low return correlations. In other words, we combine assets that zig when other holdings zag.


Another method is to ensure that multiple years of withdrawals are funded through a combination of portfolio income and monies set aside in low-volatility assets such as money market funds and short-maturity bonds. This eliminates the need to take withdrawals from more volatile holdings during prolonged market declines.


Through these methods we strive to create a portfolio that is well positioned to meet both your longer-term goals and your withdrawal needs.



1Both portfolios have an annual standard deviation of 12%.


DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this material should not be considered as a recommendation to buy, 出售, 或者持有任何特定的证券. This report includes candid statements and observations regarding investment strategies, 个别证券, and economic and market conditions; however, 没有人能保证这些语句, 意见, 或者预测将被证明是正确的. Actual results may differ materially from those we anticipate. The views and strategies described in the piece may not be suitable to all readers and are subject to change without notice. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, 截至本报告日期有哪些是最新的. The information is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, 法律, 以及税务建议或365亚洲唯一官网下载建议. Investing in stocks involves risk, including loss of principal. 过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果.