2021年10月

“I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400年棒球击球员. 但现在我想回到债券市场. 你可以恐吓所有人.”

——詹姆斯·卡维尔，政治顾问，1993年

 

大约30年前, bond investors were considered a powerful lot—powerful enough to earn the moniker “bond vigilantes.“应对赤字推动的政府支出, these investors would 出售 government bonds and thereby raise interest rates and the government’s cost of borrowing. Their perceived influence could strike fear into policy makers and politicians alike.

 

今天的世界感觉已经大不相同了. With the major economies operating with increasing budget deficits—and carrying historically high and growing levels of debt—interest rates are stuck near all-time lows. In this seemingly untenable situation, one wonders, “Where are the vigilantes?一个答案是:治安维持者现在是怀疑论者.

 

今天的债券市场是怎样的?

By several indicators, the bond market appears to make little sense. 考虑长期U.S. 美国国债收益率, 例如, which are traditionally composed of two elements: expectations of future interest rates and compensation for inflation. The latter factor has played the most influential role in determining the level of long-term interest rates.

 

The historical relationship between inflation and interest rates appears broken. 如右图所示, the 10-year Treasury bond yield has closely tracked the Consumer Price Index (CPI), 收益率几乎总是高于该指数.

Today, however, the CPI has measured inflation at nearly 5.3%，高于2008年以来的任何时期. Rather than adjusting to compensate investors for inflation, 10年期美国国债收益率仅为1.4%，导致负的实际回报约-3.9%.1

 

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影响力信息 利率和U.S. 美国国债收益率

 

 This bond-market madness has also spread beyond Treasury bonds: even U.S. high-yield corporate bonds, with a yield just under 4%, offer no income over inflation. Simply put, interest rates are not “where they ought to be.”2

 

From Vigilantes to Skeptics: Transitory Inflation and Unproductive Debt

资本市场上的投机者可能大量存在，但美国政府却没有这么做.S. government-bond market is generally not their preferred habitat. 虽然我们可以对债券市场的疯狂行为摇头, prudence suggests that we pause and ask what the vigilantes are saying. 仔细检查, it appears that the vigilantes have become skeptics—skeptical both that high inflation will persist and that high debt will improve economic growth.

 

如下表所示, this summer’s high CPI readings look quite different when we expand the period to include the deflation that occurred at the start of the pandemic.3

 

 

This table illustrates that price levels have accelerated more rapidly over recent months; however, 与2019年的价格水平相比, prices of core goods and services have increased at a more measured annual rate of about 2.8%. 而高于美联储2的目标利率.0%, this longer-term inflation rate is about half of what we’ve seen in recent CPI reports, reports that are undoubtedly influenced by supply-chain bottlenecks. 正如我们在四月洞察中提到的, this surge in inflation might be better understood as reflation from last year’s drop in consumer prices. With bond yields failing to adjust to these higher recent readings, 债券365亚洲唯一官网下载者押注通货再膨胀将结束, 长期通胀趋势将恢复.

 

The bond market also appears skeptical that higher debt will provide a meaningful jolt to economic growth. 越来越多的你.S. 财政赤字, 再加上多轮的货币刺激, 将债务推高. As Chart 2 shows, these higher debt levels have produced diminishing levels of economic growth.  Since 1950, each incremental dollar of public debt has produced, on average, about $0.经济产值的60. The productivity of debt has trended downward over the past 20 years and now sits at nearly half of its long-term average.4

 

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U.S. 每单位债务的国内生产总值

While various rounds of monetary stimulus have kept interest rates low and injected vast amounts of cash into the financial system, these efforts have been less successful in producing economic growth.5

 

低利率可能会持续下去

仔细查看, 也许那些治安维持者并没有消失, and perhaps the bond market is more rationale than it seems. We are not suggesting that interest rates won’t occasionally rise; rates will adjust as economic cycles change. 然而, 如果债券怀疑论者是正确的, interest rates will ultimately struggle to return to where “they ought to be” and will stay low for a long time.

 

 

1彭博社，截至2021年9月17日.

 

2As of September 21, 2021, the yield to worst of the Bloomberg U.S. 公司高收益指数为3.89%.

 

3Bloomberg，截至2021年9月14日. Annualized percentage change in core CPI from periods beginning 8月31日, 2019, 8月31日, 2020, 和5月31日, 从2021年到8月31日, 2021.

 

彭博社4. 债务总额被定义为美国国债.S. non-financial debt, which includes government, business, and household obligations. 数据截至2021年6月30日.

 

为了进一步说明这一挑战, consider the diminishing contribution of productive debt entering the economy, namely loans negotiated between banks and small businesses. Over the last decade, commercial banks’ collective loan-to-deposit ratio has declined by almost 50%. 彭博社，截至2021年9月17日.

 

DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this material should not be considered as a recommendation to buy, 出售, 或者持有任何特定的证券. This report includes candid statements and observations regarding investment strategies, 个别证券, and economic and market conditions; however, 没有人能保证这些语句, 意见, 或者预测将被证明是正确的. Actual results may differ materially from those we anticipate. The views and strategies described in the piece may not be suitable to all readers and are subject to change without notice. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, 截至本报告日期有哪些是最新的. The information is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, 法律, 以及税务建议或365亚洲唯一官网下载建议. Investing in stocks involves risk, including loss of principal. 过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果.